CBAM certificate price: how it is set and what drives your cost
The CBAM certificate price comes from EU ETS auctions, but the real cost depends on how many certificates you need. The free allocation adjustment, default values for Türkiye and worked examples.
The CBAM certificate price is the volume-weighted average of EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) auction prices: it is set per quarter for 2026 imports and stood at €82.32 in the third quarter. What really drives the bill, however, is how many certificates a tonne of product needs. That number is the embedded emissions minus an adjustment based on an EU benchmark, so the same product can cost several times more per tonne on default values than on verified actual data.
This article draws on the European Commission's certificate price page, its Questions and Answers document of 15 October 2026, Guidance Document 4 of 14 August 2026, and the Commission's benchmark and default value tables. For the wider picture, start with our guide to CBAM.
Who buys CBAM certificates, and who ends up paying?
The authorised CBAM declarant in the EU buys and surrenders the certificates. Purchases run through the CBAM Registry on the common central platform, which only authorised declarants can access. A producer in Türkiye or any other non-EU country does not pay the EU directly.
The impact is commercial. EU buyers work out their exposure, ask suppliers for data, fall back on default values when none arrives, and bring the difference to the price negotiation. For EU importers comparing suppliers, the certificate bill is effectively part of the landed cost. For exporters, it is part of staying competitive.
How is the CBAM certificate price set?
Under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2548, the Commission calculates the price from EU ETS allowance auction clearing prices, weighted by auction volume. One certificate covers one tonne of CO2 equivalent.
| Import period | Published | Certificate price |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 7 April 2026 | €75.36 |
| Q2 2026 | 6 July 2026 | €75.28 |
| Q3 2026 | 5 October 2026 | €82.32 |
| Q4 2026 | 4 January 2027 | Not yet published |
| 2027 onwards | Weekly | Weekly average |
The key point for 2026 is that the price follows the quarter of import, not the date of purchase. Certificates go on sale on 1 February 2027, but goods imported in March 2026 are still priced at the Q1 figure.
How many certificates are needed? The three parts of the formula
According to the Commission's Q&A, the calculation for goods other than electricity works like this:
Certificates = tonnes imported × (specific embedded emissions − specific embedded free allocation − emissions already covered by a carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin)
- Embedded emissions: verified actual data, or default values with a mark-up. Iron and steel and aluminium count direct emissions only; cement and fertilisers also count indirect emissions.
- Free allocation adjustment: this mirrors the free allowances EU producers receive. It equals CBAM benchmark × CBAM factor × cross-sectoral correction factor. The Commission's Guidance 4 table shows the correction factor at 1.0 for 2026–2030.
- Carbon price paid: only the amount effectively paid counts, and rebates or free allowances are taken into account.
If the result is negative, the obligation for that good is set to zero, and the negative amount cannot be offset against the declarant's other goods.
Why "you only pay 2.5% in 2026" is misleading
This common claim comes from the 97.5% CBAM factor for 2026. But the 97.5% applies to the benchmark, not to your emissions. Benchmarks reflect the most efficient installations in the EU. The further your emissions sit above the benchmark, the bigger the gap, and all of that gap turns into certificates.
Two examples using the Commission's tables:
| 2026, default values | Rebar (7214 20 00) | Aluminium profiles (7604 10 90) |
|---|---|---|
| Türkiye default value (t CO2e/t) | 2.310 | 3.741 |
| With 10% mark-up | 2.541 | 4.115 |
| Benchmark, Column B | 1.364 (blast furnace route) | 1.493 (primary aluminium) |
| Adjustment (benchmark × 97.5%) | 1.330 | 1.456 |
| Certificates per tonne | 1.211 | 2.659 |
| Share of embedded emissions | 48% | 65% |
| Gross cost at the Q3 price | about €99.7/t | about €218.9/t |
So the payable share in these examples is 48% and 65%, not 2.5%. The costs are gross amounts, before any deduction for a carbon price paid.
Default values or actual data? The production route matters too
In the Türkiye table, the rebar default value is based on the blast furnace route. The Commission states that when default values are used, the benchmark follows that same route. For a scrap-based electric arc furnace plant, actual data changes the picture: the arc furnace benchmark is far lower, but the plant's actual emissions can also sit well below a default value based on the blast furnace route.
The table below compares default values with a hypothetical arc furnace plant. The actual figure of 0.50 t CO2e/t is an illustrative choice, not a claim about typical plants. For readability the benchmark sums the Column A values for rolling (0.038) and crude steel (0.065) to about 0.103; the real calculation uses the quantity of precursor consumed. The price is held at €82.32 throughout.
| Year | CBAM factor | Default, €/t | Actual, €/t |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.5% | 99.7 | 32.9 |
| 2027 | 95% | 121.5 | 33.1 |
| 2028 | 90% | 146.2 | 33.5 |
| 2030 | 51.5% | 189.4 | 36.8 |
| 2034 | 0% | 247.2 | 41.2 |
The default mark-up is 10% in 2026, 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028. The message is clear. On default values, cost climbs quickly as the mark-up rises and the adjustment shrinks; for a low-emission producer with actual data, the increase stays limited. On 1,000 tonnes of rebar, the 2026 gap in this example is about €66,800.
One caution: the Commission says the benchmarks in the Annex to Regulation 2025/2620 will be reviewed once the final EU ETS benchmarks for 2026–2030 are published, with updated values applying to goods imported from 1 January 2027. The 2027-onward rows are therefore estimates.
Does the Turkish ETS reduce the certificate bill?
Not automatically during the pilot. CBAM deducts only a carbon price effectively paid, and free allowances are taken into account. As we explain in our article on the Turkish ETS, 2026 is a reporting-only year and the free allocation rate in the pilot is 100%.
The implementing act that will set out the deduction rules is planned for adoption in 2026. As of 9 November 2026, no adopted text appears on the Commission's legislation page, so we advise against building a deduction into your cost estimate yet.
Certificate timeline: how cash flow changes in 2027
- Throughout 2026: importers above the 50-tonne annual threshold need authorised declarant status; certificates are not yet on sale.
- 1 February 2027: sales begin, including certificates for 2026 imports.
- 30 September 2027: first annual declaration and surrender for 2026.
- Each quarter from 2027: the declarant's account must hold certificates for at least 50% of the emissions embedded in goods imported since the start of the year.
Certificates cannot be transferred or sold to anyone else, not even to a company in the same group. The quarterly 50% rule means EU buyers will want supplier emissions data well before year-end. All the dates are in our CBAM and Turkish ETS readiness checklist.
How producers can reduce the cost
- Map your position product by product. Put the CN code, production route and country default value side by side.
- Prepare actual data for verification. Plan your verifier early for 2026 data. Without a verified installation report, the declarant cannot use actual values.
- Get precursor data from suppliers. Purchased crude steel or unwrought aluminium is often among the biggest drivers of the result. Our steel and aluminium and cement articles cover the sector differences.
- Address it in the contract. Specify which quarter's price, which emission value and which deductions apply.
- Run scenarios. See how the certificate price, mark-up and CBAM factor affect your quoted price year by year.
Conclusion
Nobody in your supply chain controls the certificate price, but the producer largely determines how many certificates are needed. The way to do that is verifiable, product-level embedded emissions data.
Carbonet is CBAM and carbon footprint software developed by LNA Soft in Izmir, Türkiye. It calculates direct, indirect and precursor emissions per product using the EU method. See our CBAM embedded emissions calculation page for details. To try it on your own products, request a demo or write to info@carbonet.com.tr or WhatsApp +90 533 368 05 99.
Sources: European Commission CBAM certificate price page; CBAM Questions and Answers (15 October 2026); Guidance Document 4 (14 August 2026); Implementing Regulations (EU) 2025/2548, 2025/2620 and 2025/2621 (as corrected by 2026/1740); Commission benchmark and default value tables. Examples illustrate the calculation logic. This article is general information, not legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
How much does a CBAM certificate cost?
The Commission's published 2026 prices are €75.36 for Q1, €75.28 for Q2 and €82.32 for Q3. The Q4 price will be published on 4 January 2027. From 2027 the price is calculated weekly.
Do non-EU producers buy CBAM certificates?
No. The authorised CBAM declarant in the EU buys and surrenders them, and only authorised declarants can access the purchase platform. The non-EU producer supplies the emissions data, and the cost may reach it through price negotiations.
Do importers pay for only 2.5% of embedded emissions in 2026?
Generally not. The 97.5% CBAM factor applies to the EU benchmark, not to total emissions. Anything above the benchmark turns fully into certificates; on the Türkiye default value for rebar, the payable share is about 48%.
How does the CBAM factor change over time?
According to the Commission's Guidance 4, the CBAM factor is 97.5% in 2026, 95% in 2027, 90% in 2028, 77.5% in 2029, 51.5% in 2030, 39% in 2031, 26.5% in 2032, 14% in 2033 and 0% in 2034. As it falls, the adjustment shrinks.
Can a carbon price paid under the Turkish ETS be deducted?
Only a carbon price effectively paid can be deducted, and free allowances are taken into account. In the pilot, 2026 is a reporting-only year. The EU implementing act on the deduction does not appear on the Commission's legislation page as of 9 November 2026.
Which certificate price applies to 2026 imports?
The price for the calendar quarter in which the goods were imported. Certificates go on sale on 1 February 2027, and the deadline for the 2026 declaration and surrender is 30 September 2027.